At the opening of UNCTAD’s 12th Multi‑year Expert Meeting on Investment, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, experts warned that artificial intelligence and other strategic technologies are reshaping global investment patterns. Capital is increasingly concentrated in fewer sectors and countries, raising the risk that many developing economies will be left behind.
Rapid growth in AI and digital infrastructure is now closely tied to industrial policy and national security priorities, influencing where companies invest and how global production is organized. This has made global investment more volatile and harder to predict. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 11 percent in 2024 before rebounding by 5 percent in 2025, reflecting geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
Investment is clustering in strategic sectors such as AI, clean energy, semiconductors, and critical minerals, while geographically, 75 percent of FDI to developing economies is concentrated in just ten countries, including China, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and India. This leaves most developing and least developed countries struggling to attract capital, undermining opportunities for jobs, technology transfer, and integration into global value chains.
Geopolitical competition and supply chain restructuring are further fragmenting the investment landscape. Firms are directing capital toward geopolitically aligned markets, while governments rely more on industrial policies and screening mechanisms. For countries well integrated into regional networks, this may create opportunities, but for others the risk of exclusion is growing.
Despite these challenges, there are positive signals. Sustainable finance is expanding, South–South investment is rising, and reform efforts are underway across developing economies. Still, the broader trend shows investment becoming more selective, political, and unequal.
Discussions at the meeting focused on how countries can respond, particularly how to compete in strategic sectors like AI with limited fiscal space, strengthen domestic ecosystems, and ensure that new investment flows translate into lasting development gains. UNCTAD’s policy frameworks, entrepreneurship programmes, and the upcoming World Investment Forum in Doha in October 2026 aim to support countries in navigating these shifts and shaping a more inclusive global investment landscape.
