Artificial intelligence could increase Poland’s real GDP by between 1.3 percent and 12.1 percent by 2035, according to a new World Bank Group report. The scale of the economic gains will depend on how quickly businesses invest in AI, how effectively workers adapt to new technologies, and whether public policies support a smooth transition.
The report, titled “Navigating the Age of AI: Implications for Poland’s Economy,” finds that AI could begin generating productivity gains in Poland within three years. However, the benefits are not guaranteed and will depend on financing, innovation-friendly regulations, digital infrastructure, skills development and labour market readiness.
The findings are based on MANAGE-AI, a new macroeconomic model used to assess how AI may affect economic growth, jobs, wages and public finances under different scenarios. This is the first country-level application of the model, making Poland an important case study for understanding the broader economic effects of artificial intelligence.
The World Bank Group said Poland is well positioned to use AI as a source of productivity, better jobs and long-term economic growth. The main challenge is not access to AI itself, but the ability to use the technology productively through investment in infrastructure, skills, education, digital networks, energy and other foundations of future growth.
Only 8 percent of Polish firms currently use AI, showing significant room for adoption. The report notes that productivity gains will depend less on the availability of technology and more on whether firms can apply it effectively. Stronger management practices and a clear, predictable regulatory environment will be important for turning AI adoption into real economic benefits.
The business services sector, which is a major employer in Poland, is expected to experience some of the earliest effects of AI adoption. As routine tasks become increasingly automated, firms may shift toward higher-value activities, changing how work is organized across sectors.
The report suggests that AI could create substantial economic value without fundamentally changing the overall structure of the Polish economy. Its biggest impact is likely to be seen in the organization of work, with employees moving across occupations and tasks as companies adopt new technologies.
Reskilling programmes, active labour market policies and transition support will be essential to help workers adapt before AI adoption accelerates. The ability to adjust will vary by skill level, age and gender, making targeted support important for ensuring that the transition is inclusive.
The World Bank also warns that the gains from AI may not automatically reach all workers. Because many benefits tend to accrue to capital, policies related to labour markets, education, social protection and taxation will be needed to ensure that AI-driven growth results in higher living standards and better jobs.
Although the report focuses on Poland, its findings offer lessons for countries across Europe and beyond. It highlights how AI can help economies boost productivity, respond to demographic change and create new growth opportunities if governments, businesses and workers prepare for the transition.
The report was developed through collaboration with the Government of Poland, academia, think tanks and international partners. It underscores that Poland’s ability to benefit from AI will depend on coordinated action to strengthen investment, skills, innovation and worker protection.
